This decision is not “renewal is cheaper monthly”. It’s: what total exposure are you accepting for the next 5 years — and how much fragility you’re adding.
If you’re undecided after reading, run the numbers — the break-even usually reveals itself.
| Signal | Leans toward | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Your usage is stable for 3–5 years | Renew | Renewal is a “commitment buyout”. Uncertainty is expensive. |
| Repair risk is rising / unpredictable | Replace | One major repair can erase the perceived renewal savings. |
| You want to reduce COE timing risk | Renew | You lock your structure and avoid buying into a bad COE moment. |
| You’re renewing because “selling now is painful” | Replace | Sunk cost bias. Don’t extend a mistake to avoid admitting it. |
| Cashflow looks fine but liquidity is thin | Replace / downsize | Fragility kills: the bad month forces a bad sale. |
People renew COE to “avoid buying high” — then forget they are still buying a structure. If renewal pushes you into thin liquidity, you’re not safer — you’re more trapped. If this feels familiar, read the instalment trap.