COE is the single variable that can make a “reasonable” car instantly irrational. The mistake most people make is treating COE like a prediction game. The better approach is to treat COE as part of your total ownership exposure — and bid with a disciplined ceiling.
Start here (fast path)
COE uses a sealed-bid system. You submit your maximum. At the end of each exercise, bids are ranked until the quota is filled. Successful bidders pay the same clearing price (the lowest successful bid), not their own maximum.
The highest-ROI tactic is not predicting direction — it’s avoiding emotionally-driven overbids. Practical steps:
COE changes your depreciation assumptions. A clean way to set a ceiling is to convert COE into an “exposure per year” number and ask: does this still make sense for my usage?
If you want the full model, start here: Car Ownership Cost (master).
Model total exposure, set a ceiling, and avoid overbidding under urgency. Supply/demand mechanics matter more than headlines.
No — it’s a sealed-bid system. Your maximum vs the market clearing price is what matters.
Waiting can help if you can tolerate uncertainty, but COE is volatile. Compare buy-now vs wait using total exposure, not instalment.